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11 November 2004 Edition

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Out with the old, in with the same

BY JOANNE CORCORAN

In 2000 it was considered an aberration. George W Bush had gotten the presidency by chance — a combination of a confusing electoral process, a split Supreme Court and his brother, Florida Governor Jed Bush, had somehow managed to put the Texas Governor into the White House for four years.

On Tuesday, 2 November 2004, it stopped being an historic blip and became the dawn of a new era. Bush had done what his father had failed to do — win a second term in office — and what no one since his father had managed to do —secure more than 50% of America's vote.

By Wednesday afternoon, his Democrat opponent had conceded defeat and a campaign that will be forever remembered for the viciousness on both sides, was wound up with a call from John Kerry and George Bush for national unity. Bush had become the 44th President and thoughts had already turned to what would happen over the next four years.

How the West was won

Very late last Tuesday night, television studios started calling election results from the East Coast of America. The panel of guests on each show acknowledged and dismissed the announcements from the 'decided' states, whose results had been ascertained weeks ago. Everybody was waiting to hear what had happened in the swing states — Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania. These would be the states that decided the election and the Democrat camp was buoyed by the fact that each of them had seen massive voter turnout, an event which should have been good news for John Kerry.

Then something astonishing happened — Florida was called for Bush, again. The incumbent President had trounced his opponent in the state that had caused so much controversy last time, increasing the vote difference from 537 in 2000 to almost 400,000 this time out.

Bush had gone off the beaten path in Florida to get votes and his strategy had worked.

While Democrats placed their emphasis on the state's urban centres and dispatched thousands of lawyers in a defensive effort to avoid the mistakes they made four years ago, the Bush campaign pulled off a grass roots campaign drive that would impress Sinn Féin election organisers.

109,000 volunteers were enlisted statewide and a vigorous operation began of phoning, knocking on doors, driving voters to polling stations, handing out goody bags to queuing voters and giving people lifts home.

The Republican strategy succeeded most along the Interstate 4 corridor in central Florida, where Bush's pledges to quash terrorism and promote traditional values appealed to the mostly white, middle-class, religious-leaning population. From this corridor alone, 20,000 new votes were picked up.

His campaign was part of a long game. Three of the four hurricanes that battered Florida this year swept through the Interstate 4 corridor and the President visited after every storm and swiftly sent federal aid to the regions.

Similar intensive turnout blitzes were executed in other important swing states, including Ohio, where Republican volunteers helped make three million voter contacts in the days leading up to the election.

House and Senate wins

Two days after the election, a confident President Bush vowed to start working on the litany of promises made during his campaign, saying: "The people made it clear what they wanted."

In an address to the nation, he reiterated his immediate goals — overhauling Social Security, getting Congress to move speedily to limit lawsuit awards against doctors, pushing for tougher educational standards for high schools and rewriting the tax code.

And Bush can start ticking off his promise list, because last week's election also returned a Republican majority in the American Congress and Senate. In the 100-seat Senate, Republicans went from 51 to 55 seats, beating Democrats in almost every close contest, even toppling their Senate leader. The Republicans now have a mandate that nobody can deny and this is the source of Bush's quote after he was elected: "I earned capital in this election, and I'm going to spend it."

One of the problems for Bush is whether he has any financial capital to spend on his plans.

Show me the money

The economic slowdown that dogged most of Bush's first term was largely due to the aftershocks of the dotcom crash. But with employment declining for most of the last four years, Bush was always prepared to embrace risky solutions. Like Reagan before him, he cut taxes, while increasing government spending. He has also had to fund the 'War on Terror' and the occupation of Iraq, while increased spending on domestic programmes, notably healthcare for older Americans.

In the eyes of fiscal conservatives, Bush is a financial vandal. In 2001, estimates put the US budget surplus over the next decade at $5 trillion dollars. Today the number is the same, but now it is written in red. If Bush has his way it will continue to head in that direction. His plans to cement tax cuts for rich Americans will indebt the economy to the tune of trillions of dollars over the next ten years. Add to this the trend of importing more than the country exports, and the continued role of America as the world's policeman, and the country is facing a deficit disaster.

The dollar has never been weaker and it's not only Americans who are concerned. It's often said that if America sneezes, the world catches a cold. If America's economy crashes, so will everyone else's.

One step forward, two steps back

Bush has been very vocal about his plans for spending what America doesn't have. However, when questioned about sensitive issues, like who he will appoint to the Supreme Court if given the chance, he is surprisingly quiet, giving no indication of how he will balance pressure from the evangelical Christians who played an important role in winning his re-election and his stated desire to reduce the nation's partisan tensions.

This issue is likely to grow and grow, given the fact that 80-year-old Chief Justice William Rehnquist has thyroid cancer. Few expect him to serve for much longer. A social conservative, such as White House counsel, Alberto Gonzales, may be a likely nominee for Bush.

Other vacancies on the bench are imminent. Once filled, Bush should have overturned the Court's wafer-thin moderate majority. The court could set to work unravelling a 50-year settlement that has asserted the rights of women, black Americans and, more recently, homosexuals. Opposition to affirmative action or abortion rights has, until now, been a minority position in America's highest court. That could change. And the conservative takeover of all three branches of the US government (executive, legislative and judiciary) would be complete.

A realigned America

Bush represents the new, realigned America. Last week's victory signalled a shift that has been under way for several decades. Many Bush voters admitted their unhappiness regarding Iraq and the economy. But they backed the President because he reflected something they regarded as even more important: their values.

Already, feminist spectators are saying the shift implies dark days ahead for American women. They say that for the first time in recent history, the 1973 Roe v Wade ruling legalising abortion is in serious trouble.

However, Bush's course has been pre-charted by his voters. A comment from Republican Senator Arlen Specter last Friday, that strongly anti-abortion judicial nominees might be rejected in the Senate, caused uproar, with thousands of Republican supporters bombarding their Senators' offices with calls looking for an explanation of Specter's comments. Their message was clear — one of their reasons for voting Bush was his anti-abortion values, and now they want what they voted for.

What the world needs now

In the run up to the US election, newspapers from all over the world printed polls which in the main showed their readers wanted to see a Kerry win. Some country's leaders made it clear that they favoured a Democratic administration in the White House. They are now adjusting to a different reality.

For four years, many hoped that the course charted by President Bush — a go-it-alone view of a world divided between the forces of darkness and those of light — would prove to be a glitch.

But the White House is not about to ditch the approach of the last four years. Because, despite the mayhem in Iraq, despite the deaths of more than 1,000 US soldiers and countless thousands of Iraqis, despite the absence of weapons of mass destruction or of any links between Iraq and al Qaeda and despite Abu Ghraib, the Bush administration won the approval of the American people.

Leaders from around the world could do nothing last Wednesday except congratulate Bush.

Most Arab countries did not hide their dismay, but the Palestinian leadership did pledge to work with the new administration.

Israel glowed with satisfaction at Bush's victory, confident of four more years of support from its best-ever friend in the White House.

But underlying the congratulations lies a massive tension about what Bush has planned for the next four years.

Iran's suspect nuclear programme weighs heavy on the minds of the world's leaders, and whether Bush will decide to take pre-emptive strikes against that country and North Korea is the big question.

Another important issue on which the US is divided from the world is a French push to have a European Union arms embargo against China lifted. The US is opposed, arguing such weapons could be used against US forces in the Taiwan Straits. But America's ally, Britain, is siding with France and Germany on the issue.

In addition to this, next year, Britain will have the presidency of the G8. Blair has stated publicly that he wants to make global warming a priority of that presidency. Will he be asking Bush, who pulled out of the Kyoto Treaty, to support whatever position he takes on environmental issues?

Policy shift?

The world is waiting with bated breath to see whether Bush will choose to maintain controversial foreign policies or take a more pragmatic approach in Iraq and other trouble spots.

Some critics say that having being assured a second and final term, Bush may change his policies.

"I wouldn't be surprised if he did make an effort to work more closely with the Europeans," Helmut Sonnenfeldt, a foreign policy adviser under President Richard Nixon and expert at the respected Brookings Institution, said this week.

But another expert warned that the Bush administration's neo-conservatives, who pushed for the war in Iraq, may seize on the President's re-election to push their agenda.

"My guess is that there are many people in this administration who see a victory as a vindication of their current policy and as a mandate to continue those policies," Joseph Cirincione of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said.

Bush will likely begin his new term with new cabinet officials who could set a different tone for the administration.

Commentators have speculated that Secretary of State Colin Powell, the US official considered most willing to take a multilateral approach in foreign policy, may leave the administration. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice are also being closely watched.

Several world events in the next few weeks could also offer hints on Bush's future approach to foreign policy.

The international conference on Iraq in Egypt on 22 and 23 November will give the United States an opportunity to discuss the war-torn country with Arab nations and European allies. And in the Middle East, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's health problems and Israel's plans to withdraw from the Gaza Strip could increase US involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

However, Cirincone appears to be closer to the mark with his conjecture than Sonnenfeldt.

Only a week after being elected, Bush initiated a major attack on Fallujah in Iraq, the main centre for Iraqi insurgents opposed to the American and British presence in their country. The assault is ongoing and hundreds of Iraqis have already died.

On Tuesday of this week, Colin Powell told the London-based Financial Times that the country does plan to continue with its aggressive foreign policy.

"The President is not going to trim his sails or pull back," Mr Powell said in his first interview since the election.

"It's a continuation of his principles, his policies, his beliefs," he told the London-based newspaper.

A careful conservative

Bush may plan to serve up more of the same in his second term in office, but he and his advisors also know that history holds sober lessons for eight-year presidents.

Richard Nixon was forced out of office by Watergate. Ronald Reagan had the Iran-Contra scandal. And Bill Clinton faced impeachment proceedings because of Monica Lewinsky.

"The big danger is one of hubris," David R Gergen, a professor of public service at the John F Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, said this week. "There's a tendency after you win your second term to think you're invulnerable. You're not just king of the mountain, you've mastered the mountain. That can often lead to mistakes of excessive pride."


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