The centre cannot hold

By Robbie MacGabhann

    
In the long run, the message must be that the union is cracking and the centre cannot hold. This can only be for the good.
Isn't it amazing what a difference two years makes. Most republicans stayed up in May 1997 to watch with relish the end of 18 years of Tory rule. Last weekend, many people watched again, though perhaps not with the same intensity, as the Labour Party lost ground to the Scottish National Party (SNP), the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru in the Scottish and Welsh assembly elections. It seems that watching the establishment squirm in an election is a sport that provides pleasure no matter what the election is.

Though New Labour attempted to gloss up the election result, there is no doubt that they were ever so slightly worried. After all, there is no point in delivering devolution if the electorate does not reward you with an overall majority.

In Scotland, Labour won 56 out of 129 seats, the SNP won 35 seats, 18 for the Tories, barely pipping the Liberal Democrats' 17. The Greens won one seat and independents, including one deselected Labour Party MP, won the last two seats.

In Wales, Labour took 28 out of 60 seats, with Plaid Cymru taking 17. The Tories took nine and the Liberal Democrats won the last six seats. In English council elections held the same day the Labour Party won 36% of the vote compared to 33% for the Tories and 27% for the Liberal Democrats.

These elections mark a historic departure for voters in Britain. The Welsh and Scottish elections included a PR element in the distribution of seats, leaving both assemblies with a more equitable distribution of votes to parties.

In Scotland, the top-up seats were distributed through eight regions. Wales had five top-up regions alongside the 60 seats.

The election results have raised serious questions about the state of the union in Britain. Labour has become a unique party in that it is the largest party in Scotland, Wales and England. They will in Scotland probably form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. That would be a first for British politics. In Wales, Labour are determined to forge ahead as a minority government.

The Conservatives, a self-proclaimed one nation party, are now in actuality the party of one nation - England. The next logical step for Tony Blair, having conceded devolution and proportional representation for Wales and Scotland, is to push ahead with the same project in Westminster. However, speaking in Westminster, Blair said this week that the status quo will continue and the Union will go on unchanged.

It was interesting to hear Donald Dewar being sworn in this week. He pledged allegiance to the not only the Queen but also to her successors. No such oath is asked of Six-County assembly members.

What Tony Blair really has set in process is a renegotiation of the Union, albeit in an à la carte fashion. There are now three different electoral systems at work in Britain and the Six Counties. There are four different types of government and one state, England, has no regional government at all.

For republicans throughout Ireland and Britain, this can only be good news. The Union has been weakened by Blair's devolution despite his claims to the contrary. Labour may well form governments in Wales and Scotland. They will face competitive opposition from the SNP and Plaid Cymru, who can benefit from not being in government for now.

Plaid Cyrmu won seats from Labour in Llanelli, Rhonda and Islwyn. These were seats where previously Labour had relentlessly piled up substantial majority after majority. The SNP came from behind to give Labour a scare in this election and can only grow as an electoral force.

One of the downsides of the elections was the low turnout. In Scotland, turnout was just under 59%. In Wales it just hit 40%, while in the English council elections turnout was a miserable 29%. There is, it seems, little interest in electoral democracy the further south you go in Britain today. However, in the long run the message must be that the union is cracking and the centre cannot hold. This can only be for the good.