Polls in the news: Are we asking the right questions?

NEWS INTERNATIONAL have been very busy people in commissioning opinion polls in Ireland.

Their three main Irish titles – The Sunday Times, News of the World and The Sun – have all published polls in recent weeks.

All were carried out by Red C, the research and marketing agency, and comply with best industry practice in terms of sampling and methodology and meet the criteria of ESOMAR, the European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research.

Last week it was the turn of The Sun. Their November 9^th reports were covered across the seven Irish newspapers, with the greater focus on Brian Cowen.

“Cowen slumps to 11%” was the Sun page 1 headline, the article reporting:

Brian Cowen has plummeted to an all-time low in opinion polls as Eamon Gilmore’s support soars.

The other headlines were:-

Examiner: Support for Taoiseach plummets to 11%
Independent: Cowen’s rating plummets to new low of 11% in poll
Mail: Backlash for Cowen as just one in ten voters back him
Mirror: Cowen drops to 11% in poll
Star: New poll hammering for Cowen
Times: Cowen approval ratings down to 11%

The Red C poll was also carried on other media, with RTÉ reporting:

A new opinion poll indicates that support for Taoiseach Brian Cowen has fallen to 11% – his lowest-ever popularity rating.

The satisfaction rating line was taken up by other news media. The Irish Times said:

Satisfaction ratings for Taoiseach Brian Cowen have fallen by seven points.

The Examiner compared the result to a September Ipsos/MRBI poll for The Irish Times, saying that this result was 8% less than the mrbi one.

However, there are some issues to be discussed before we compare the two polls. The first is what was the question actually asked. In the Red C poll respondents were asked:

Irrespective of which party you support, which of the main party leaders do you believe would make the best Taoiseach after the next general election?

This is not what the Ipsos/MRBI poll asks respondents. They are asked:

Are you satisfied with the way the following are doing their jobs?

In the Red C question, respondents had to choose between Cowen, Gilmore, Kenny and “None” or “Don’t Know”.

The Ipsos/MRBI survey asks the question of the six parties with Leinster House representation and so they are asked about the Greens’ John Gormley and Sinn Féin’s Gerry Adams. In the Ipsos/MRBI poll, respondents can be “Satisfied”, “Dissatisfied” or have “No Opinion”.

Brian Cowen had a 19% “satisfaction rating” in the September 30th Ipsos/MRBI Irish Times polls, but comparing it to the Red C one is not counting like for like.

Finally, how come the decrease in Enda Kenny’s “Best Taoiseach” question in the Red C Sun poll gets no headline? His rating decrease was 4%, which is less than the margin of error but I don’t think this is why it was overlooked in the headlines.

It is clear that Brian Cowen’s days as Taoiseach are numbered; what isn’t clear from these poll questions is who will replace him. In the Red C poll last week, 27% of people either didn’t know or did not think any of the three choices was suitable.

Why was there no headline saying that the Don’t Knows/No Opinion rating was higher than Enda Kenny and Brian Cowen, or that 61% of the voters do not agree that Gilmore would make the best Taoiseach?

I suppose it all depends on how you count and compare and, in this case, it seems not very well at either.