Roadmap to where?

Just four days after US President George W Bush launched his 'roadmap' peace plan at a summit in Jordan with Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, three militant Palestinian groups joined forces to kill four Israeli soldiers on Sunday 7 June in Gaza. The action was seen by many as an act of defiance against the new peace plan, but also as retaliation for the killing of two Hamas activists on Thursday 4 June near the West Bank city of Tulkarem. Also on Sunday, Palestinian militants killed another Israeli soldier in the West Bank town of Hebron. Six Palestinian fighters were killed in the violence, one of the bloodiest 24-hour periods in recent weeks.

In retaliation on Tuesday, Israel launched a missile strike against a car carrying a leading Hamas official in the Gaza Strip. Abdel Aziz Rantisi was hit by shrapnel in the leg, arm and chest, while two others were killed. In a second such attack later that afternoon, two people died and 32 were injured. The Sunday attack by Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, Rantisi had said, was intended to send a message to Abbas that Palestinians will continue to fight Israel and will not "surrender to the pressure exerted by Israel and the United States". After the helicopter attacks, thousands took to the streets to protest.

The attacks came as a blow to Palestinian Prime Minister Abbas' efforts to negotiate a ceasefire with militant groups, his strategy for ending anti-Israeli attacks as called for by the US-backed peace plan. Hamas had already announced its opposition to the plan and Rantisi accused Abbas of going too far during the summit, when the Palestinian PM recognised the state of Israel and surrendered the claim to land within Israel's 1967 borders. Abbas angrily denouned the Israeli attacks.

If Abbas is unable to organise a ceasefire, he may have to decide between launching a violent crackdown on those groups or abandoning the road map, which calls for an end to 32 months of fighting and envisions the creation of a Palestinian state by 2005.

In the aftermath of the attack, Sharon was heckled by his own party members at an angry Likud gathering in Jerusalem; the missile attack was no doubt intended as a show of strength, although George Bush was "deeply troubled" by the helicopter strike.

The so-called roadmap is intended to be a goal-driven, phase-by-phase route to ending the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians within two years. It is also meant to have specific deadlines, benchmarks and reciprocal confidence-building measures built in. Pieced together by diplomats from the United States, Russia, the European Union and the United Nations, it was amended after consultation with Israelis and Palestinians.

The main stages in the plan are the end of armed resistance, political reform and fresh elections among Palestinians, while Israel will withdraw from its latest occupation and freeze its settlement expansion. Palestinians are to unequivocally reiterate "Israel's right to exist in peace and security" and end all "armed activity and all acts of violence against Israelis anywhere". Once a process of rebuilding a Palestinian force guaranteeing Israeli security has progressed satisfactorily, the Israeli army will withdraw "progressively from areas occupied since 28 September 2000, and the two sides restore the status quo that existed prior to 28 September 2000".

A second transitional phase takes place between June and December 2003 "focused on the option of creating an independent Palestinian state with provisional borders and attributes of sovereignty". Nowhere during this process are the actual borders of this state to be defined, nor is there any explanation of what is meant by "attributes of sovereignty".

Between 2004 and 2005 there would be a second international conference, an agreement on final borders, the status of Jerusalem, and the future of the refugees and settlements. The return of Palestinian refugees is one of the main questions for discussion in this argument. The Israeli administration would like the rights of the refugees to go back to Palestine to be relinquished, as Tel Aviv would not be ready to deal with millions of returned Palestinian to the neighbouring newly formed state.

On the other hand, the Israeli government is likely to face strong opposition by settlers on Palestinian land to any plans for their evacuation.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has explicitly accepted the idea of a Palestinian state - which is one of the main aims of the roadmap. For the state to be viable, Israel would have to dismantle the majority of its West Bank settlements. But Israel's reservations over the timing and order of moves called for by the roadmap may make substantial, swift progress hard to achieve.

The US administration is trying to sidetrack Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat in this process, but Arafat has made it clear that he is still a player. He and his supporters still have strong influence, and Abbas has no independent power base of his own. International envoys still visit Arafat in Ramallah, though Israel has begun to refuse to meet diplomats who also include him on their agenda.

The roadmap has been criticised as a dead end to apartheid by many Palestinians, as it outlines a state divided into cantons - isolated enclaves separated by Israeli settlements and military checkpoints. Critics say the peace plan aims merely to put an end to the Palestinian people's resistance to Israeli occupation.

This plan for the Palestinian territories would allow Israel to maintain the control of the Palestinians' land, economy and natural resources.

Startling statistics

In the last two years, more than 200 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli assassinations; 120 of whom were not the targets of the attacks, including 27 children. In addition, thousands of Palestinians have been killed or injured at demonstrations or during Israeli military incursions into Palestinian towns and villages.
The Israeli Army is carrying out a massive campaign of repression. There are around 8,000 Palestinian prisoners in Israel's prisons and detention centres, a level not experienced in more than a decade. More than 1,000 of these prisoners are held under administrative detention orders: they have not been charged with any crime or faced trial, but are kept in prison for up to six months.
Israel has also implemented a draconian system of restricting Palestinians' movements through closures, curfews and military checkpoints. The West Bank now consists of 64 separate enclaves, with movement between them is regulated by a system of military-issued permits and army checkpoints. It is very difficult to obtain a permit if you have been politically active or have been previously arrested. Permits can be cancelled on a whim and, even with a permit; there is no guarantee that movement between areas will be permitted.
The enclaves are also separated by large Israeli settlement blocs and Israeli-only roads built on expropriated Palestinian land. These resemble giant fingers protruding into the West Bank, dividing the north, centre and south into three cantons.

Israel is constructing what has been dubbed the "apartheid wall". This nine-metre-high concrete barrier will stretch 360 kms along the length of the West Bank. The wall hugs the edges of Palestinian towns - literally imprisoning the residents.
There are plans for another wall that will be built along the eastern side of Palestinian towns, meaning that all Palestinian areas in the West Bank will be surrounded by a concrete barrier interspersed with guard towers. According to Palestinian environmental and human rights groups, around 10% of the West Bank's land will be confiscated for the first stage of the wall. The northern West Bank town of Qalqilya has been completely surrounded by the wall; there is only one entrance to the city, guarded by Israeli soldiers.

Almost 20% of the Palestinian labour force worked inside Israel prior to the current intifada. As a result of the closures, curfews and movement restrictions, most have lost their jobs. Today, the majority are reliant upon the Palestinian Authority for their livelihood, either through direct salaries or via other forms of support.
The Palestinian Authority is dependent upon foreign funds for its continued functioning. In 2001, these funds covered about 75% of the Palestinian Authority 's salary budget. The Occupied Territories' total trade deficit is 45 50% of GDP and this is principally financed by foreign aid.