Presidential Election: SOME MEDIA COMMENTATORS CAN'T COUNT

Eoghan Harris

FIRST OFF it was Harry McGee writing in The Irish Times the Saturday after the Presidential election, as the count was being completed. Commenting on the Sinn Féin election result, McGee said that the vote for McGuinness “reflected traditional Sinn Féin voting patterns, with none of the party’s breakthrough constituencies in the general election shoring up his support. He performed poorly in some Munster constituencies, including Kerry North”.

Okay, let’s do the maths. Sinn Féin had new TDs last February in Sligo/North Leitrim, Cork East and North Central, Donegal North East and South West, Laois/Offaly and Meath East.

The five Cork constituencies had higher shares of first preferences than February 2011, with four of them registering higher total votes than February despite the lower turn-out.

In Kerry South, the party didn’t run in 2011 and this time took 14.9% of the vote. In Limerick City, the vote increased; and in Limerick County, where Sinn Féin didn’t run in February last week, saw McGuinness take a 10.6% vote share.

In Tipperary North, the vote share increased from 6.3% in February to 11.9% for McGuinness. In Tipperary South, the vote more than doubled, from 4.5% to 13%. In Waterford too, the vote went up; and in Clare, where Sinn Féin didn’t run in February, McGuinness took a 10.5% vote share. But, yes, Harry you are right here: in Kerry North, one of  13 Munster constituencies, the vote share fell, though there is the small matter of increases in the other 12.

In constituencies with new TDs such as Donegal North East, Laois/Offaly and Sligo/North Leitrim, the Sinn Féin vote share increased on the February result.

Eoghan Harris, writing in the Sunday Independent, claims that the Sinn Féin vote only increased by 1%. He chose to compare vote totals rather than a percentage turn-out, which is the method used in most other media outlets. It’s part of a statistical idea called “comparing like with like”.

In the 2004 and 2009 EU elections, Sinn Féin took 11.1% and 11.24% of first preferences respectively. So this 13.7% is more than 2% above the party’s previous best.

Then enter Odran Flynn, writing in The Irish Times on November 1st. Like some other media commentators writing about Sinn Féin, Flynn makes claims about party strategies and intent without actually quoting a representative or hinting that he actually had made contact with any.

Flynn claims that Sinn Féin made no headway in the Presidential poll, as when you compare the 220,661 votes won by the party in the Presidential election in the same 38 constituencies they contested in February, McGuinness won only 222,051 in these constituencies.

Like Harris, Flynn forgets to mention the little issue of turn-out – that it was over 70% in February and just 56% last week. He also overlooks the fact that, in 21 constituencies, Sinn’s Féin’s votes cast figure increases compared to February and that in 31 of the 38 constituencies the party’s vote share increased on February.

Have a look at the table in An Phoblacht and maybe post a copy to Messrs McGee, Harris and Flynn.