ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS | HOW THE VOTES WENT

Electoral growth continues

Alex Maskey is back

TWENTY-NINE seats and a 26.9% share of first-preferences were just two of the critical markers for Sinn Féin in the 2011 Assembly election. It is not easy taking the responsibilities of power and it is even more difficult in the face of an ongoing economic crisis yet Sinn Féin’s performance in this election demonstrates a growing trust with the electorate.
Sinn Féin won two new seats in this election.
The boundary changes in Lagan Valley meant the party would not hold a seat there but Oliver McMullan came through in East Antrim and in Fermanagh/South Tyrone Sinn Féin took three Assembly seats for the first time.
In all, Sinn Féin was the largest party in six constituencies: West Belfast, Fermanagh/South Tyrone, Newry/Armagh, Upper Bann, Mid-Ulster and West Tyrone; and the second-largest party in five: North Antrim, North Belfast, East Derry, South Down and Foyle. Only four of the 18 constituencies are without a Sinn Féin MLA.

East Antrim

Vote    % of poll
1998 Assembly    746    2%
2001 Westminster    903    2.5%
2003 Assembly    768    2.5%
2005 Westminster    828    2.6%
2007 Assembly    1,168    3.9%
2010 Westminster    2064    6.77%
2011 Assembly    2,369    8.2%

Oliver McMullan took a new seat here for Sinn Féin, building on the gains made in the 2010 Westminster elections. McMullan recorded the highest-ever vote for the party, doubling the 2007 performance in the constituency and widening the gap between Sinn Féin and the SDLP. The Sinn Féin seat was won from the UUP.

North Antrim

Vote    % of poll
1998 Assembly    4,045    8%
2001 Westminster    4,822    9.8%
2003 Assembly    6,195    14%
2005 Westminster    7,191    15.7%
2007 Assembly    7,065    15.9%
2010 Westminster    5,265    12.42%
2011 Assembly    6,152    15.3%

With turn-out falling for the third time in this constituency from 61.33% to 57.81% and 54.82% this time, Sinn Féin’s vote share showed significant resilience, improving on the Westminster 2010 performance. Daithí McKay was elected on the first count and once again the party consolidated its position as the second-largest party in South Antrim.
With no Paisley name on the ballot paper in this constituency for the first time in over 30 years of elections, there was some speculation as the depth of the DUP support, which held up at 47.6%, its second-highest vote share. (Lagan Valley was top at 53.1%.)

South Antrim

Vote    % of poll
1998 Assembly    3,226    7%
2001 Westminster    4,160    9.4%
2003 Assembly    4,295    11.5%
2005 Westminster    4,407    11.6%
2007 Assembly    6,313    16.5%
2010 Westminster    4,729    13.91%
2011 Assembly    4,662    14.5%
Mitchel McLaughlin was also returned on the first count for the second time in this constituency and held up the Sinn Féin vote gains in South Antrim that won an Assembly seat here in 2007. Once again, Sinn Féin was significantly ahead of the SDLP, who polled 10.6% of the vote.

East Belfast

Vote    % of poll
1998 Assembly    917    2%
2001 Westminster    1,237    3.4%
2003 Assembly    1,180    3.8%
2005 Westminster    1,029    3.3%
2007 Assembly    1,055    3.6%
2010 Westminster    817    2.37%
2011 Assembly    1,030    3.2%

Niall Ó Donghaile was running in two elections, both the Assembly and the Pottinger ward of Belfast City Council, where he won a seat on the ninth count. In the Assembly, Ó Donghaile pushed the Sinn Féin vote back past the 1,000 mark.
A significant proportion of the media election focus was on this constituency to see how the DUP vote and particularly that of party leader Peter Robinson would hold up, having lost the Westminster seat to the Alliance Party in 2010. Robinson topped the poll and the DUP held three seats, the losers being sitting Independent MLA Dawn Purvis as Alliance took a second seat.

North Belfast

Vote    % of poll
1998 Assembly    5,610    21%
2001 Westminster    10,331    25.2%
2003 Assembly    8,514    27%
2005 Westminster    8,747    28.6%
2007 Assembly    9,094    30.6%
2010 Westminster    12,588    34.03%
2011 Assembly    10,671    31.9%

Sinn Féin’s vote share grew on the 2007 Assembly vote, with the party holding their two Assembly seats. Gerry Kelly and Carál Ní Chuilín were returned for a further term. Only Sinn Féin and the Alliance Party grew their vote share here compared to the 2007 poll. Sinn Féin was again the second largest party in this constituency.

South Belfast

Vote    % of poll
1998 Assembly    2,605    6.4%
2001 Westminster    2,894    7.6%
2003 Assembly    3,933    12.6%
2005 Westminster    2,882    9%
2007 Assembly    3,996    13.17%
2010 Westminster         Withdrew
2011 Assembly    4,038    12.5%

In 2010, Sinn Féin withdrew Assembly member Alex Maskey from this constituency to help consolidate the nationalist vote and elect a nationalist MP for South Belfast. The SDLP vote rose from 26.78% in 2007 to 41.03% in 2010 and in 2011 it fell to 23.9%. Maskey polled 12.5% of the vote and held the Sinn Féin seat here.

West Belfast

Vote    % of poll
1998 Assembly    24,650    59%
2001 Westminster    27,096    66.1%
2003 Assembly    21,368    65%
2005 Westminster    24,348    70.5%
2007 Assembly    23,631    69.9%
2010 Westminster    22,840    71.08%
2011 Assembly    22,902    66.1%

Sinn Féin President Gerry Adams didn’t run here for the first time in an election since 1982 and since his election this year as a TD for Louth. Sinn Féin was again the largest party in West Belfast, winning five of the six seats.

East Derry

Vote    % of poll
1998 Assembly    3,860    9.8%
2001 Westminster    6,221    15.6%
2003 Assembly    6,121    17.9%
2005 Westminster    5,709    16.1%
2007 Assembly    6,797    20.4%
2010 Westminster    6,742    19.29%
2011 Assembly    7,320    21.1%

Contesting his second election for Sinn Féin in this constituency, Cathal Ó hOisin, running with Bernadette Archibald, grew the Sinn Féin vote to a record share of 21.1%. Ó hOisin held the Sinn Féin seat won here by Francie Brolly in 2003.

North Down

Vote    % of poll
1998 Assembly    –    –
2001 Westminster    313    0.8%
2003 Assembly    264    0.9%
2005 Westminster    205    0.6%
2007 Assembly    390    1.3%
2010 Westminster    250    0.75%
2011 Assembly    293    1%

Having stood back in the 2010 election, the DUP made significant gains here with a vote share of 44.2%, up 10.1% on 2007, and won three Assembly seats compared to the UUP’s one. Their vote collapsed to 10.4%, down by 13.3% on 2007. Conor Keenan was the Sinn Féin candidate here.
South Down

Vote    % of poll
1998 Assembly    7,771    15.1%
2001 Westminster    10,278    19.7%
2003 Assembly    12,007    26.5%
2005 Westminster    12,417    25.8%
2007 Assembly    14,134    30.65%
2010 Westminster    12,236    28.73%
2011 Assembly    12,887    30.9%

Sinn Féin held their two Assembly seats here as Caitríona Ruane and Willie Clarke both won. Ruane was elected on the second count and Clarke on the seventh after the elimination of the third Sinn Féin candidate, Naomi Battle, who narrowly missed the third seat here for Sinn Féin. The Sinn Féin trio also set a record vote share for the party here.

Fermanagh/South Tyrone

Vote    % of poll
1998 Assembly    13,714    26.9%
2001 Westminster    17,739    34.1%
2003 Assembly    15,901    34.5%
2005 Westminster    18,638    38.2%
2007 Assembly    16,833    36.3%
2010 Westminster    21,304    45.52%
2011 Assembly    19,338    40.3%

This was the critical election for Sinn Féin in the 2010 Westminster poll as Sinn Féin’s Michelle Gildernew fought to hold the seat and won through despite four recounts. The SDLP lost votes in the 2007 election and this happened again in 2011, with the party vote down 4.4% compared to 2007. Michelle is joined in the Assembly by Seán Lynch and Phil Flanagan. Sinn Féin is the largest party in Fermanagh/South Tyrone and taking the third seat is a big breakthrough for the party here.