The exports factor

TWO cheers for RTÉ, Today FM and Newstalk this morning for not jumping too much on the 'exports growth' bandwagon.

RTÉ, like many other news media outlets, have reported on Irish Exporters’ Association (IEA) figures which show a 9.3% increase in exports in the months July to September 2010. Exports for the first nine months of 2010 are 4.4% ahead of the same period in 2009. So the economic recovery is ‘go’?

Exports “increased strongly”, according to TV3 news today. The reason, according to TV3, was “a more competitive exchange rate and continued buoyancy in global trade”. Compare this with the RTÉ explanation of a “weak euro boosting Irish exports”.

“Very aggressive growth” is what's happening, according to Business & Finance magazine on their website, which quotes Chief Executive John Whelehan extensively. Whelehan said:

“Amongst the continued onslaught of negative coverage of the Irish economy, the Irish export effort continues to show the way out of the recession.”

“Goods exports surge on lower euro rate” is the Irish Times headline this morning. The Irish Independent ran with the “weak euro” angle.

Few of these news media outlets pointed out that these factors – the value of the euro, dollar and sterling – are totally beyond the control of Irish economic policy-makers. It is the Finfacts.ie website which points out that 90% of 'Irish' exports are from international firms, the strategies of which are also not under the remit of Irish policy-makers.

So the Fianna Fáil/Green Party Coalition Government had nothing to do with these 'improved' export figures, delivered mainly by non-Irish businesses who will invest their profits outside the island economy.

The IEA is forecasting €158.9billion in total exports for 2010; it was €154billion in 2009. In 2009, exports by indigenous Irish firms totalled €13billion, 8.4% of the total down 9% on 2008; food exports were down 14%, drink exports down 21%, manufacturing exports down 26%.

Also not quoted in the reports today is a January 2010 statement by the IEA's John Whelehan where he said that recovery in exports would continue in 2010 but it would be a “jobless recovery”. Speaking on Today FM, Whelehan said it was possible that the export growth would “increase our employment”. But there was no probing on what has changed in the IEA analysis since January.