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2 July 1998 Edition

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Time for change

By Brian Campbell

After a hectic, historic three months politics in the Six Counties is still not allowed time to draw breath. In fact, when the Assembly met on Wednesday there was no shortage of breath.

What was significant was that an engagement of sorts took place. Not any sort of polite, measured debate, but a debate nevertheless. Far from the DUP and UKUP members ignoring Sinn Fein, they were drawn into responding to them. Perhaps it will develop into something more constructive. That siad, don't hold your breath.

Looming over the Assembly's first meeting was, of course, the threat from Orangemen to march on the nationalist Garvaghy Road.

The annual crisis over the march from Drumcree threatens once more to erupt into violence on the streets. The situation is now very tense.

Residents fear a British or RUC decision to over-rule the Parades Commission decision. That would be blatantly against the spirit of the Agreement, which requires that citizens should not suffer sectarian intimidation. The Agreement also speaks about a future of equality. No longer, as newly elected Assembly member Bairbre de Brun said, should residents be seen as being in the way of something. They are people with rights and they deserve respect.

If the march goes ahead it would also be at variance with the resounding nationalist success in the Assembly elections. The Six Counties is so clearly not the place it was even a few years ago. Nationalists emerged from the election with their highest ever share of the vote - a total of 39.6%. It is further proof that the nationalist community is on the march, so to speak. They will no longer tolerate being classed as second-class citizens. They are saying that in the polling stations as well as on the streets.

By contrast Unionists are split wide open and that has implications for the wider Unionist community. The intransigent elements within Unionism are currently engaged in a long term rearguard action. In the Assembly and as regards Orange marches, they want to cling on to old certainties. Slowly but surely they will come to realise the sort of changes that are inevitable. One of them is respect for the rights of their nationalist neighbours.

The Unionist vote was split so much that, for the first time, a nationalist party, the SDLP, topped the poll, with 22%.

But the SDLP has polled as high in the past. The real winners within nationalism were Sinn Fein. Their 17.6% confirms their steady advance this decade from less than 11% until now they are the biggest party in Belfast and in the counties of Tyrone and Fermanagh. The result also makes Sinn Fein the third largest party in Ireland. Their combined vote throughout the island is bettered only by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

A further piece of good news for Sinn Fein came in the shape of a report which shows that the party attracted 80% of new nationalist voters. That is a vital statistic given the SDLP's aging profile and it points to Sinn Fein soon becoming the largest nationalist party in the Six Counties.

But the SDLP now has the opportunity to rebuild. The prospect of salaried political careers is likely to see an influx of personally ambitious young people into the party in the coming years.

The contrast between nationalism and unionism which this election has exposed is indeed stark. The sense of empowerment which the peace process has given to nationalists is expressed in a confident, coherent strategy - against a palpable fear of the future among unionists. For them, it is the slow, painful process of coming to terms with change.

David Trimble, in particular, personifies Unionist confusion and division. He signed up to the Agreement in what was seen as a courageous step forward but ever since he has tried to change it in favour of his position. Instead of campaigning on its potential to bring a brighter future he focused on those parts - release of prisoners, IRA decommissioning, Sinn Fein in cabinet - which have caused him most difficulty. It was arguably the stupidest campaign someone in his position could have fought and the result was the Ulster Unionists' lowest ever vote.

Trimble continually lets it be known that he still refuses to talk to Sinn Fein, and still insists on an IRA handover of arms in advance of Sinn Fein participation in the Assembly's Executive and before the release of prisoners.

By contrast, while he uses this negative rhetoric, there is evidence that Trimble is lagging behind his electorate. The result of the referendum indicates that he would win support if he gave positive leadership.

Gerry Adams has said that Trimble is torn between his emotions and his intellect - emotionally he is against change; intellectually he knows it must come. When his emotions and intellect are aligned, then we will see progress, Adams said. That progress can only come by working the terms of the Agreement but so far there is nothing to show that Trimble has grasped that reality.

His language betrays his agenda. He fought the election on a platform of minimum change and has yet to reveal a strategy to move into the new future described by the Agreement. Even when he made what was billed as a forward-looking speech, Trimble pointedly ruled out dealing with republicans.

But Sinn Fein now has enough seats to guarantee them two cabinet positions. Trimble as First Minister will be faced with the dilemma of having to deal with two Ministers at the cabinet table while at the same time refusing to talk with them. The inevitability of a climbdown should see an eventual end to the farce. But it may run for a few months yet.

For the moment, the Assembly will be suspended until September. The Agreement stipulates that its institutions be in place by the end of October - in particular the all-Ireland bodies - but Trimble's Ulster Unionists have said they are determined to delay until well into next year. It is yet another indication of Trimble's short term tactics. The desire to hold back the tide of change reveals the lack of a coherent strategy.

That tide of change could begin on the Garvaghy Road, but that is up to the British government. It is their first major test. We'll soon know if they have passed it. Behind the scenes loyalist death squads are said to be preparing to strike against nationalists and there have been warnings to be extremely vigilant. It could be a tense few weeks.

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