12 August 2004 Edition

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Chavez set to win recall referendum

The recall referendum in Venezuala, which the country's conservative opposition had hoped would mark the end of the leadership of Hugo Chavez, takes place this Sunday 15 August. The latest opinion polls don't bode well for Chavez's right-wing detractors, showing the sitting President in front by between 8% and 31%, depending on the poll.

There are 14,245,615 Venezuelans registered to vote in the referendum. The opposition must secure at least 3.8 million votes to unseat Chavez. The opposition needs to secure more votes in the referendum than Chavez received to get elected. New elections would be held within 30 days if the opposition wins the vote. If Chavez wins, he will finish his term of office, which ends in 2006.

Venezuela's highest circulation newspaper, Ultimas Noticias, reported that pro-opposition pollsters, Consultores 21, gave 55% to the No vote compared to 45% for the right-wing opposition's recall proposal.

In spite of the fact that most polls in recent weeks have shown a clear pro-Chavez advantage, influential international media outlets are joining the anti-Chavez chorus. They continue to argue that polls show Chavez losing the referendum or are too close to call. "The more reputable polling firms suggest the opposition is in the lead, albeit by an uncomfortably small margin," said the latest issue of US current affairs magazine Newsweek. "The polls — by the opposition and by the government — are often too close to call," said The New York Times in its 6 August issue.

Polls show that President Chavez remains the country's most popular figure, with 59% of those surveyed favouring him despite the continuous attacks by the conservative opposition. Meanwhile, opposition leader and prospective presidential candidate Enrique Mendoza's support hovers around 14%, while other opposition figures are on 9, 5 and 3% respectively.

Venezuela's poll war became quite colourful on Wednesday 4 August, when opposition newspaper El Universal published on its front page a poll favouring the opposition, allegedly compiled by company Seijas y Asociados. This poll turned out to be false and of unknown origin, as Seijas y Asociados declared that it had not conducted the poll. El Universal then claimed it obtained the survey by e-mail. "Publishing an eight-column poll obtained by email on a paper's front page without verifying the source should cause the newspaper's editor to resign," said Venezuelan Information Minister Jesse Chacon.

This referendum is the latest attempt by opposition groups to overthrown the popular president. First elected in 1998, barely known internationally as one of the leading officers in a coup attempt in the mid 1990s, Hugo Chavez's accession has marked a turning point in Latin American politics.

Leading the opposition to the US government's neo-liberal economic plans for Latin America, Chavez has been the first Latin American president in many years to hold out a hand of friendship to Cuban President Fidel Castro. His criticism of US policies and his own progressive social policies have brought hope back to grass-roots movements in Latin America. His political presence may have been what other political leaders, like current left-wing Brazilian President Lula, needed to secure election.

Chavez's resilience and commitment to his social policies has helped him to retain the support of the less well off in Venezuela, while firing the hatred of the oligarchs who once enjoyed uncontested political power in the country. They cannot come to terms with this provincial, mixed-race former soldier taking that power away from them.

Third ousting attempt

If the poll results are confirmed by the voters on Sunday, this will be the opposition's third defeat in as many years. First was the attempted coup d'état in April 2002 — so well documented in Irish documentary The Revolution Won't Be Televised — which was defeated after 48 hours by the combined forces of Chavez's civilian and army supporters.

After his return, Chavez dismissed senior officers who opposed his project of involving the armed forces in programmes to help the country's neediest, working in agriculture, literacy programmes and building infrastructure.

The second attempt against Chavez came in the way of a prolonged work stoppage in December 2002, which extended to a lockout at the state oil company, as senior management opposed Chavez's plans to use oil revenue to fund his social projects.

Chavez also has enemies outside Venezuela. US and Spanish reaction to the April 2002 coup showed Bush and former Spanish PM Aznar eager to welcome "new" Venezuelan president Pedro Carmona. Both were made regret their over hasty public statements when Chavez was returned to power.

The Venezuelan Government has been implementing security measures for months in order to guarantee a peaceful and uneventful referendum, but Chavez's supporters believe that the opposition may be planning an outbreak of violence to try to change the result.

This belief has been strengthened after an arms cache valued at US$53 million was discovered in Brazil last month. The arms seemed to have been destined for Venezuelan radical opposition groups seeking to sabotage the referendum. Tens of kilograms of C4 explosives and detonators have been reported stolen from military bases in Venezuala.

On 5 August, four people were injured and seven vehicles were destroyed by gunshots and heavy explosions, including Labour Minister Cristina Iglesias' SUV, after heavily armed men broke into Commando Maisanta headquarters in Maracaibo. Approximately 45 community media journalists were present for a meeting with pro-Chavez political leaders.

Colombian plot

Only a few months ago, Venezuelan authorities broke up a civilian-military group that was plotting to overthrow the government with the aid of Colombian right-wing paramilitaries. Several civilians, some of them government employees, some retired, and three active military officers are being investigated in the case. They were arrested in May at a farm outside the Venezualan capital, Caracas, where the group was undergoing training in preparation for attacks on government targets.

Colombian right-wing paramilitaries — supported by the Colombian army and government — are said to have entered Venezuela with the help of immigration authorities in the border province of Tachira. Among the officials being investigated are retired National Guard sergeant José Rafael Rojas and Immigration officer Julio Jaime Hernandez, who accused Rojas of ordering the transportation of the right-wing paramilitaries to Caracas.

Venezuala's national director of Immigration and Identification Services (ONIDEX), Ismael Serrano, who testified on Tuesday, said that Hernandez had worked at the Caracas ONIDEX headquarters but requested to be transferred to the regional office in Tachira. Hernandez went into hiding after testifying before the Attorney General's Office, and is being sought by authorities. Six other immigration officers have also been questioned. Rojas has been charged with military rebellion.

Authorities revealed that the assassination of President Chavez was discussed by this group at a meeting on 23 April at a house in Caracas' Country Club. Former Venezualan dictator Pedro Carmona is suspected of being involved in the plot from Colombia, where he lives under political asylum.

The possibility that Venezuela's political opposition may not accept a defeat peacefully has been heralded by a warning issued by the Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA), a US research organisation based in Washington. It believes the opposition may resort to violence - involving the assassination of Chavez or the creation of right-wing paramilitary organisations similar to those in Colombia - to force Chavez out of office.


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