Watershed elections

BY Paul O'Connor

Alex Maskey waits to see if he has won a seat

The Assembly election marked a watershed in Irish politics. The campaign may have been lacklustre at times and the turnout low. But the results register tectonic shifts beneath the surface of Irish politics. They have changed the political landscape of the North forever.

Media analysis has depicted the results as a "victory for the two extremes". This does an injustice even to the DUP, who, after all, owe much of their advance to the careful pitching of their rhetoric to win over middle-of-the-road unionists. More importantly, by treating the successes of Sinn Féin and DUP as though they were parallel, such analysis fails to grasp the true significance of this election. It is not merely that the future belongs to republicans, while Paisley is the bigoted and narrow voice of the past. The latest victory for Sinn Féin is a sign of nationalist confidence, and a further step in the advance of a resurgent republicanism throughout the island. The gains for the DUP, on the other hand, reflect the defensiveness and confusion of a unionism fearful of change, which it nonetheless recognises as inevitable.

The significance of the republican victory is immense. When, in the wake of the Hunger Strikes, Sinn Féin emerged as a growing electoral force, it became central to the policy of both governments to halt its advance. Indeed, one of the principle motivations of the 26-County Government in pursuing the Anglo-Irish Agreement was to shore up the SDLP as a bulwark against Sinn Féin.

Even at the time of the Good Friday Agreement, the hope was that republicans could be marginalised. Many predicted the Agreement would herald a coalition of the "centre" parties, the SDLP and Ulster Unionists, leaving Sinn Féin out in the cold. With the SDLP on board, a modified, but fundamentally unchanged, version of British rule over the Six Counties would continue indefinitely.

This is the context in which to see Sinn Féin's emergence as the undisputed leader of nationalism. After this result, there can never be a return to the policies of marginalising and excluding republicans. Sinn Féin's negotiating position is stronger than ever before. It has always been the case that an agreement without republicans was impossible. Now such an agreement is unthinkable.

The only all-Ireland party — the only party with an absolute commitment to ending British rule — is now the largest in the nationalist community. This is a huge blow to anyone who hoped the Agreement represented a Six-County settlement with cross-border embroidery. Sinn Féin's victory must be seen in the context of the continued advance of the party across the island, the next stage being the local and European elections in the 26 Counties. The growing political strength of republicanism means the Agreement is not a final settlement, but part of an ongoing process of developing democracy and equality on the island, leading ultimately to a 32-County Republic.

If the significance of Sinn Féin's victory is clear, this is not the case with the advance of the DUP. On the one hand, their emergence as the largest party within unionism might be seen as a triumph for Ian Paisley, a nightmare for everyone else. The bogeyman of the North's politics in the driving seat of unionism. Certainly, the DUP victory sends out a message about the continuing reluctance of many unionists to accept that the days of their ascendancy are gone, and that the time has come to work with together with nationalists to build a future as equals.

But it also needs to be recognised that the DUP has moderated its rhetoric and its stance considerably and that this was undoubtedly a factor in its electoral success. They have dropped their demand that cross-border bodies be abolished and conceded the prinin the Assembly elections, parties which uphold the Agreement gained more than 70% support. By contrast, DUP voters account for less than 10% of voters on the island. Such a tiny minority cannot be allowed to overturn the will of the vast majority of Irish people.

Thirdly, what form would a renegotiated Agreement take? There is no way republicans or nationalists could accept a roll-back on policing reforms or a re-jigging of the institutions to suit the DUP — especially when Sinn Féin has just been given its strongest mandate ever.

But while the DUP cannot hope to scupper the Agreement, they can prevent the full restoration of the institutions in the short term. True, there are highly able people in the DUP who are eager to put their abilities to work in a devolved government. But so long as Ian Paisley remains leader of the party, their ability to steer it towards compromise will be limited.

If efforts to restore the institutions end in stalemate, however, the DUP will be the primary loser. For republicans, the Agreement is about much more than the institutions. Policing reform, demilitarisation, equality, Irish language rights, the all-Ireland agenda — these aspects of the Agreement cannot by affected by DUP obstructionism. With or without institutions, it remains for republicans to ensure that the two governments press ahead with the full implementation of those aspects that lie wholly within their remit. On policing and demilitarisation, it is high time for British "acts of completion". And unlike the DUP, our horizons are wider than Antrim and Down. We have an outlet for our energies in building political strength — both electorally and organisationally — throughout the island of Ireland.

For the young(ish) Turks of the DUP, on the other hand, there is little to do but lust after the delights of Ministerial office. Of all the parties, theirs is the one historically most committed to devolution — whereas for republicans, acceptance of a devolved government at Stormont during the negotiations for the Agreement represented a compromise.

In the past couple of years, republicans have engaged in quite extraordinary acts of generosity, and have taken initiatives unparalleled in the history of the movement, to rescue the Agreement and to salvage an Assembly desired by unionists in the first place. Our goal, after all, is not devolution but a united Ireland. In the new political landscape of the North, the DUP needs devolved government more than Sinn Féin.

No one can question our commitment to the Peace Process. But if the DUP want devolution, it is up to them to provide the compromises needed to make it work.