Assembly Election 2003 Constituency overview - Part III of III

BY ROBBIE SMYTH

In the final part of a three-week series, An Phoblacht tracks the Sinn Féin vote share across the 18 constituencies and the state of play between the other political parties.

South Antrim

Councillor Martin Meehan contests this constituency for Sinn Féin for the third time in an election where a steadily increasing vote share must put the party in with an opportunity to take a seat here.

In the May 1997 Westminster elections, the Sinn Féin vote share was 5.55%, rising to 7.33% in the 1998 Assembly elections. In the 2001 Westminster poll, Meehan took over 4,000 votes and 9.42% of the poll.

The SDLP vote in this constituency fell in 2001, Seán McKee taking 12.08% of the vote, down from 17.69% in 1998. The seat won by Donovan McClelland in 1998 might be under threat this time around.

For unionists, South Antrim has seen a greater spilt in voting as DUP and UUP representatives vie for position as the most hard-line anti-Agreement position. In 1997, Clifford Forsythe held the Westminster seat for the party with 57.49% of the vote. The DUP sat out this contest, with only the Alliance and PUP challenging for unionist votes.

Willie McCrea won this seat in a 2000 Westminster by-election, only to lose it back to the UUP's David Burnside in 2001, who took 37.06% of the vote compared to 34.77% for the DUP. However, that was without the PUP contesting, even though the newly-formed Northern Ireland Unionist Party did contest the election. The NILP consisted of former UKU members, including sitting Assembly member Norman Boyd, who saw his personal vote collapse in 2001.

In 1998, the UUP took two Assembly members, with one for the DUP, UKU and Alliance. This time around, with collapsing vote share in the Alliance and the other fringe unionists, the UUP and DUP will be looking to share the Alliance and UKU seats between them.

Mid-Ulster

Sinn Féin has been the largest party in this constituency for three consecutive elections and in 2001 sitting MP Martin McGuinness took 51.07% of the vote for the party.

McGuinness won the Westminster seat here in 1997 with just over 40% of the vote. In 1998, a similar vote share in the Assembly elections gave Sinn Féin three seats for McGuinness, Francie Molloy and John Kelly.

This time around, Sinn Féin is fielding four candidates. Sitting MLAs Martin McGuinness and Francie Molloy are joined on the party ticket by Geraldine Dougan and Cora Groogan. John Kelly has stood down. The SDLP vote has fallen from 22.24% in 1998 to 16.77% in 2001.

The DUP's Willie McCrea was given a clear run by the other unionist parties here in 1997 but still lost the seat to Sinn Féin. He held an Assembly seat for the party in 1998 and was joined by the UUP's Billy Armstrong. The UUP didn't run in 2001 and the DUP only managed 31.14% of the vote.

The vote share between the two parties in 1998 was 21.38% for the DUP, with 13.93% for the UUP. The state of play between the two parties this time around will be worth noting.

South Belfast

Sinn Féin's Alex Maskey is running here for the second time and is hoping to continue 20 years of political record setting. He was Sinn Féin's first elected Belfast councillor in 1983, is a sitting MLA in West Belfast and in 2002 became the first republican Mayor of Belfast. He has the potential to become the first Sinn Féin MLA for South Belfast.

Maskey won 7.63% of the vote for Sinn Féin here in 2001, up on the 6.4% polled in 1998. In 1997, Seán Hayes had won 5.11% of the votes for Sinn Féin.

The SDLP's 21.7% of the vote gave them two Assembly seats in 1998. In the 2001 Westminster election, the SDLP won 30.59% of the vote, as many nationalists tactically voted for Alasdair McDonnell. This time around, the SDLP vote share will be under greater pressure and two Assembly seats are not guaranteed for the party.

This is also one of the two constituencies where the Northern Ireland Women's Coalition holds seats. Monica McWilliams' 9.62% of first preferences in 1998 was just enough to elect her on the tenth count, squeezing out the Alliance Party, who had more first preferences than the NIWC.

The UUP's 23.41% of first preferences gave them two seats while the DUP's 13.07% won a seat for Mark Robinson.

South Down

The SDLP vote in South Down has been in decline for the last three elections with Sinn Féin making continual gains. Eddie McGrady took 52.91% of the vote and a Westminster seat in 1997. He held the seat in 2001 but with only 46.35% of the vote.

Meanwhile, the Sinn Féin vote has grown from 10.36% in 1997 to 15.13% in the 1998 Assembly elections and in 2001 Mick Murphy won 19.74% of the vote. Sinn Féin looks certain to add to the one Assembly seat won by Murphy in 1998. Mick is not standing this time around and Sinn Féin is fielding Down councillors Eamonn McConvey and Willie Clarke, along with human rights and community activist Caitríona Ruane.

The UUP and DUP took a seat each in this constituency in 1998. Then, the UUP took 14.45% of the vote, compared with 9.4% for the DUP and 5.02% for the UKU. In 2001, the UKU didn't stand and the UUP vote grew to 17.62%, while the DUP's Jim Wells won 14.98% of the vote.

Strangford

This constituency was one of the UUP losses in 2001 and a major setback for the party. Longtime sitting MP John Taylor stood down and the DUP's Iris Robinson took the seat in a hotly contested election.

In 1997, the UUP sailed home with a substantial gap between them and the DUP. The UUP had 44.29% of the vote, compared to 30.22% for the DUP. In 1998, the parties were more evenly matched under PR, with the UUP at 29.16% still marginally ahead of the DUP, who polled 27.73% of the votes cast. Both parties elected two Assembly members each, with one each for the UKU and Alliance.

The UKU gave the DUP a clear run in the 2001 Westminster election and Iris Robinson was the narrow winner, with 42.84% of the vote compared to 40.28% for the UUP's David McNarry.

The Sinn Féin candidate in this most difficult constituency is Dermot Kennedy, chairperson of Strangford Sinn Féin.

Upper Bann

This was a breakthrough constituency for Sinn Féin in 1998 as Dara O'Hagan took 14.32% of the vote and an Assembly seat. In the 2001 Westminster elections, the Sinn Féin vote grew again to 21.10%, opening up the potential for further advances this year. Sitting Assembly member Dara O'Hagan is joined on the ticket by Craigavon councillor John O'Dowd.

The SDLP vote in Upper Bann has decreased substantially from the 23.7% won by Brid Rogers in 1998. In 2001 Rogers contested West Tyrone for the SDLP and the party's Upper Bann vote share fell to 14.91%.

This constituency is also home to UUP leader David Trimble. There has been a sea change in the unionist and nationalist votes here. In 1997, the UUP were topping vote share with 43.6% of the vote followed by the SDLP, Sinn Féin and the DUP.

In the PR environment of the 1998 Assembly elections, the UUP vote fell to 28.89% and they elected two MLAs, with one each for the DUP and UUP. By 2001, the UUP vote share had risen back to 33.5%. However, the DUP vote jumped to 29.46%, bolstered with MLA Denis Watson now in the party and bringing dissident UUP voters with him. A lot is at stake for Trimble if he doesn't maintain the UUP lead in his own constituency.

West Belfast

Sinn Féin took four of the six seats here in 1998, with 58.98% of the vote, and this time around an ambitious local party organisation is targeting five seats. In the 2001 Westminster elections, party president Gerry Adams was returned again as an MP with 66.12%, the largest vote share of any party throughout the Six Counties.

The SDLP vote has been in decline from 38.69% in 1997 to 24.93% in 1998 and just 18.92% in 2001. With such a vote share the SDLP will have difficulty holding on to the two Assembly seats they won in 1998.

The Alliance and four other unionist parties ran here in 1998, winning just over 14% between them. The UUP's Chris McGimpsey hung on until the 10th count but was over 500 votes behind the SDLP's Alex Atwood, who was elected without reaching the quota.

West Tyrone

This constituency has also witnessed substantial growth in support for Sinn Féin over the last three elections, culminating in party vice president Pat Doherty being elected an MP in 2001. In 1997, Sinn Féin had 30.86% of the vote, compared to the SDLP's 32.07%. In 1998, the party won the highest vote share in the constituency, with 34.09% of the poll.

In this election, Sinn Féin elected two MLAs, with two also for the SDLP, while the UUP and DUP had one each.

The 2001 Westminster election saw the Sinn Féin vote share grow again to 40.83%, with the SDLP on 28.73%. Sitting MLAs Pat Doherty and Barry McElduff are joined on the party ticket by councillor Brian McMahon. The DUP pulled slightly ahead of the UUP here in 1998, though they gave Willie Thompson a clear run in 2001. This time around the DUP could match the UUP vote.